Home / MLB / With The Youth At The Door, Who Among Starlin Castro, Jacoby Ellsbury, And Chase Headley Do Yankees Move?

With The Youth At The Door, Who Among Starlin Castro, Jacoby Ellsbury, And Chase Headley Do Yankees Move?

During the 2016 season, Brian Cashman decided to stop the trend of mediocrity that the New York Yankees were seemingly stuck in for a few seasons. In 2016, the same mediocrity looked destined to happen again. Cashman then traded away Carlos Beltran, Aroldis Chapman, and Andrew Miller to officially start a renewed focus on developing a top minor league system. 2017 was supposed to be a season of rebuilding that turned into an ALCS Game 7 appearance. The team that was a season or two too early now has a problem on their hand. There are MLB ready prospects in Triple-A (or on the bench), but Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Starlin Castro are in their place.

Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, and Miguel Andujar are all prospects who have either already made their MLB debut (Frazier and Andujar) or are ready to be MLB players (Torres). Torres, who is coming off Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, is expected to be a potential starter for the MLB team in 2018. Meanwhile, Frazier actually started 35 games for the Yankees during the 2017 season. In his lone MLB start, Andujar went 4-5 with four RBIs and a double. All three of these players could make an impact on the MLB team during the 2018 season. However, there are no spots for them on the roster as of right now (at least for starting). That is the problem for the Yankees heading into this offseason. Other than DH, all of last year’s starters are returning to the team.

It is almost a question of who and when rather than if it comes to a trade this offseason. There are three position player prospects who do not need much more time in the minors to develop their skills. Especially for Clint Frazier, it is time for these players to prove their value to the Yankees. While there are other established players at the MLB level who are currently taking spots the prospects could play, Ellsbury, Headley, and Castro have been entrenched in trade rumors for some time now.

Headley was the talk of trades last offseason. The Ellsbury rumors began when Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Brett Gardner established themselves as the outfield trio. While a bit surprising to me, Starlin Castro seems to be the new favorite to be traded away. It is entirely possible that none of these three players will be traded before the 2018 season. However, nobody should be surprised if any of them are moved. There is a unique likelihood of each player being traded this offseason by looking at their contract, their numbers, and who would replace them.

Chase Headley

Chase Headley is an interesting case. As mentioned, he has been in the trade rumor mill since last offseason. It was a bit surprising to some that he ended up remaining on the team when Spring Training came. Now, it seems that Headley will be the least likely to be traded between the three. Despite the fact that Headley might be the most hated (by the fans) on the team right now, the evidence seems to point to the fact that he might not be traded away.

Statistics

The reason I believe Headley is the most hated Yankee on the roster is that he is bland. He is not a great player, nor is he a bad player. Headley falls into the dreaded mediocre category that makes it difficult to defend him while he wears pinstripes. Since becoming a Yankee in the summer of 2014, Headley has been a serviceable third baseman. In his three and a half seasons with the Yankees, Headley has a slash line of .262/.339/.387 with 43 home runs and 191 RBIs. In 501 games played, Headley has not been impressive.

However, Headley’s yearly statistics do not tell the whole story. Last year, Headley finished the season with a .273 batting average. That is a solid average, but it could have been a whole lot better. Now, this is no exaggeration, Headley was the worst MLB hitter in the month of May this past season. In May, Headley batted a miserable .165/.211/.235 with only five extra-base hits. If May is taken out of his numbers, Headley’s average is bumped up to .295.

Contract

Chase Headley might have the easiest contract among the three to move this offseason. Headley has one year left on his four-year deal. That one year is worth $13 million, which a bit expensive for the type of player that Headley has proven to be. Granted, that contract is not a blemish on Cashman’s resume as the Ellsbury deal was, but it is still a bit expensive for a third baseman with little power and an average OBP. The 33-year-old third baseman (will turn 34 in May) might be a bit overpriced, but only one year of commitment compensates for that.

Odds of Being Moved

If you asked me this question back in September, I would have said that Headley would definitely be moved. Now, I am doubtful. I would not be surprised if he was traded, but I think he is too “cheap” compared to the other two players to trade. It will be easier to stomach putting $13 million on the bench rather than the amount Ellsbury will be paid next season. Plus, Headley can play both third and first as well as DH. He might only be a nine hitter, but he brings value to the team.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

Jacoby Ellsbury would have had his best season in pinstripes had he not crashed into the wall midway through the season. That concussion never seemed to leave Ellsbury, which cost him his place in the Yankees’ rotation of outfielders. At the beginning of the season, Ellsbury was rotating in and out of the lineup along with Hicks, Gardner, and Judge. After his injury, Ellsbury was relegated to the fourth outfielder with the pressure of Clint Frazier’s desired arrival on his shoulders as well.

Statistics

Oh boy. Jacoby Ellsbury in pinstripes has seemingly been a massive failure. During his time with the Boston Red Sox, Ellsbury was a .294 hitter who swiped bases and covered a lot of ground in the outfield. As a Yankee, he has slashed a measly .264/.330/.386 with only 102 stolen bases. His full season career low in Boston for stolen bases (39) matches his career high in pinstripes. Ellsbury has been a flop after receiving his ridiculous contract before the 2014 season.

His 2017 looked to be changing that narrative though. Before his concussion, Ellsbury was batting .281 with four home runs and 19 runs scored. Granted, it was not going to be the numbers that you’d hope to see produced out of the contract that he has, but it was going to be his best season in pinstripes. After his concussion, Ellsbury only batted .253 in 73 games played. Only 58 of those 73 games were ones that Ellsbury started. Ellsbury was beginning to be used as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner late in games.

Contract

Before the 2014 season, Ellsbury signed a seven-year/$153 million contract to be a Yankee. That contract simply looks bad right now. Ellsbury still has four years left on that deal with a whopping $84 million owed to the outfielder. Ellsbury’s contract will be the toughest to move. Plus, he will be 38 in the final year of the deal. There is no chance that the Yankees will be able to trade Ellsbury away without paying for a good chunk of that contract.

Odds of Being Moved

Last offseason, the Yankees were in a similar place with Brian McCann. McCann lost his starting job to Gary Sanchez, so there was little reason to keep him for the amount of money that he was owed. Ellsbury has been replaced by Aaron Hicks, so there is little reason to keep him on the bench. However, Ellsbury has a full no-trade clause and Brian Cashman has yet to contract Ellsbury about the possibility of being traded away.

Unless the Yankees find a trade partner who wants to unload a similarly ugly contract (looking at you San Francisco), I think Ellsbury will be a Yankee heading into the 2018 season. He will be the fourth outfielder while the Yankees give more time to Frazier to develop. By the end of 2018, there is more doubt that Ellsbury will still be a Yankee. However, that massive contract and injury history makes him a difficult sell to make to another team.

 

Starlin Castro

Well, this name was surprising when I first saw it pop up. In my opinion, Starlin Castro has been a solid second baseman for the Yankees. While he is no Joe Morgan, he has been one of the better second basemen in the AL over the past couple of seasons. In fact, he was an All-Star in 2017.

Statistics

Starlin Castro has only been a Yankee for two seasons. In those two seasons, he has batted .283/.317/.442 with 37 home runs and 133 RBIs. Castro has been a run producer over his two seasons, especially in 2016 when he led the team in home runs. Since he only hit 21 that season (and Gary Sanchez tied for second by only playing two months), that might be more of a statement about the Yankees in 2016 than Castro himself.

With that said, 2017 was a successful season for Castro when he was healthy. He batted .300 with a career-high in slugging percentage (.454). He only played in 112 games, which was disappointing since he was having such a great season. However, for all of his success on offense, his defense was pretty bad. His fielding percentage at second was .973 with -4 defensive runs saved. His defense at second has been an improvement over his time at shortstop for the Chicago Cubs, but that is not saying too much.

Contract

Among the three players, Starlin Castro has the easiest contract to move. On his current contract, Castro has two years left with $22 million owed to him. While his defense is a bit worrisome, $11 million per season for a second baseman who can hit 20 home runs is something another team might be willing to pay. Even with the increase in power across the league, only nine second basemen hit more than 20 home runs in 2017. Out of those nine, only two hit .300 or above. One of those two was AL MVP Jose Altuve. Castro’s balance of hitting and power makes him worth the $11 million per season.

Odds of Being Moved

Joel Sherman actually purposed an interesting trade idea for the Yankees that involved Starlin Castro. In his piece, Sherman suggested that the Yankees should ship Castro and others to the San Francisco Giants for Joe Panik. While that move might defeat the purpose of trading Castro away (why acquire another MLB player to hold back Torres), it solidified the idea that Starlin Castro has the highest chance of being traded away.

Despite his chemistry with Didi Gregorius, his contract is the easiest to move as well as he can return the best value for the Yankees. Rather than acquiring another position player, the Yankees might look into acquiring an additional bullpen arm or more prospects to continue to bolster their organizational depth. Once again, it would not be surprising to me if Castro is still a Yankee when Spring Training comes. However, Gleyber Torres might be the starting second baseman come 2018.

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Griffin Fuller

Former Division 1 pitcher at Stetson University with an immense passion for the game of baseball. Grew up playing baseball from the age of 3. Student of the game of baseball in every aspect.Located out of Debary, Florida.
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  • Michael Lynch

    Ellsbury is owed 63.4 mill for 3 plus a 5 mill buyout for the fourth.

  • slider32

    Gardner would be the easiest to move, the Yanks could move him and Headley to the Giants. They were near last in both positions last year. This might appeal to the Giants becuase they both are playing above their salary last year, and they are a short term commitment. Ellsbury is a long shot, and Castro is better than his WAR stats.and is reasonable for his salary. He should be kept!

    • ricter

      I wouldn’t trade Gardener at all.

      • slider32

        I would if I could get Stanton, his 12 million would help.

        • ricter

          We are thinking the exact same thing…

    • Griffin Fuller

      Thanks for the comment. I think Gardner is safe from being traded since he is the second best outfielder on the club right now. Hicks is not a known commodity since he has only had one solid MLB season. Plus, Gardner is the leader of the Yankees right now.

      Headley is flexible enough for the Yankees to remain on the club I believe. Plus, his contract is cheap enough where keeping him on the bench while Torres or Andujar starts over him will not be a major issue.

      • slider32

        Cashman is still looking to rebuid the team, he inquired about trading Gardner last winter along with Headley. Cashman would rather move Ellsbury, but if he could move both Gardner and Headley to the Giants I think he would consider it. The Giants were near last in those positions last year. This free’s up the money to pay Stanton in a trade without going over the cap.

  • ricter

    This is a well written article. Nice work.

    I see Headley and Gardener staying, while Ellsbury and Castro will be gone. NY needs a suitable 3B/1B/DH and veteran in the clubhouse and Headley is that guy, while Gardener should be the 4th OF at some point.

    • It would be waste to have Gardner at 4th since he’s still one of the best starting OFers in all of MLB. This is the last guaranteed year on his deal; I don’t see him regressing that much.

      • ricter

        I agree. I love the guy. He’s my favorite Yankee player since, well, since Jeter and Bernie.

        But the reason why I said this is that I feel that the Yankees are going to bring in another left fielder, but they really do want to keep Gardner…

    • Griffin Fuller

      Thanks for the kind words! I think Gardner will remain a Yankee for the 2018 season unless the Yankees have a poor season. Gardner is the leader of the team right now, so I think it would be foolish to trade him. I think Gardner is safe also because Aaron Hicks is not a guarantee to have another solid season.

      Ellsbury will be hard to move. If the Yankees did not pick up Sonny Gray at the deadline and/or Jordan Montgomery demonstrating that he can be a MLB starter, a trade with the Giants could have worked where the Yankees acquired Jeff Samardzija in a contract swap. However, the Yankees already have four starters in the rotation, with Sabathia or Ohtani likely filling out the fifth spot.

      • slider32

        Ellsbury for Kennedy, and Kennedy moves to middle relief for Yanks. He comes in when the Yanks are way ahead or way behind.

      • ricter

        The thing that worries me about Hicks is his body keeps breaking down. When everything works right on him, he is a potential super star. But durability is a huge factor with him.

        Trading Hicks while his stock is high and sticking Gardner in CF and platooning him with Clint Frazier may not be a terrible idea. Who do you think they could get if they trade Hicks?

        I do, however, believe that Cashman will find a taker for Ellsbury, if not to clear out a roster spot.

        • Griffin Fuller

          I doubt that Hicks would be moved at this point. He has a high upside and a lot of team control. Depending on who would be in the market for Hicks, I think the return would not be too great. He has potential, but I do not think he has risen his stock too much since the Yankees acquired him. All the Yankees truly gave up for him was a back up catcher. Perhaps they could get a 7-10th best organizational prospect or a lower level MLB pitcher, but I think it will not be more valuable than his potential contributions.

          If Cashman feels that Ellsbury is clogging up the system, he will trade him away. Cashman is not afraid to eat contract. McCann is a perfect example of that. However, Ellsbury has a no trade clause which can makes things tricky. However, if the team who the Yankees are trying to trade Ellsbury to has a starting spot available to him, I would not foresee too much trouble there.

  • Tanned Tom

    Trade Ellsbury straight up for Choo.

  • andrew farelli

    I don’t think that Castro has as much value because his career walk rate is an abysmal 4.8%. Sounds like a definition of a hacker who swings at everything.

    • I guess it depends on how savvy other front offices are (and I’m guessing the answer is “very” at this point). The article to me reads as if maybe they can take advantage of some naive team who just sees .300, pop, youth, and name recognition and ignores the lack of D and empty average/power numbers. I think most (all?) teams understand the importance of on-base skills and other stats now, but a lot of fans don’t.

    • Griffin Fuller

      Thanks for the comment. It is true, Castro’s struggles to reach base outside of a base hit is an issue with his game. However, his value is with his bat. For a team looking for some pop at second, Castro is something to look at. His base running and defense might be sub-par, but some teams will overlook that to have 15-25 home runs with an average between .280-.300 from a position that does not offer a lot of players like that.

      • andrew farelli

        I can see the Angels and Brewers perhaps having interest in Castro. But that appears to be it. I don’t think they would get much in return though.

  • John Michael

    The Ellsbury contract is fully Toxic — untradeable — and will only look worse next yr. Either he has an unlikely reversal or they will have to cut him and eat the $$. Headley & Castro have more value to the Yankees than as trade chips. They are both veterans who are used to playing in NY. When you are in it to win it it is dangerous to rely on rookies no matter how talented before they are fully acclimated to the pressures of a WS run.

    • Ellsbury has value, just not $21 million. Guys with similar production are paid low 8 figures and no one cares. The absurd (from the beginning) contract outweighs everything else, but it’s just as absurd to say someone who provides the value of an average MLB starter is completely toxic and not even worth the league minimum, when he’s better than some teams’ starters and most 4th OFers (who are paid something; Chris Young made $6.5 million this year for NEGATIVE value, for example).

  • Joe Westlake

    To trade Ellsbury NY will have to pay his contract down to $5M per year.

    • slider32

      You could trade Ellsbury for Ian Kennedy!